Base county rates reflect the starting point for crop insurance rates for an insured crop in a particular county. A particular insured unit’s rate will be derived by adjusting the base county rate to reflect yield versus revenue coverage, coverage level, unit structure, and unit APH relative to base county yield. Differences in base county rates reflect differences in yield risk derived from historical crop insurance losses. Figures 1-4 reflect the 2016 base rates for corn, cotton, rice, and soybeans. A lower base rate reflects a less risky region. Often large contiguous areas have similar risk levels. Also, a low yield risk crop such as rice has generally lower rates than other crops.
The Food Safety Modernization Act and the Marketing of Fresh Produce
The Food Safety Modernization Act (FSMA) has important implications for the marketing of fresh produce in the United States. Under FSMA, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is charged with crafting, implementing, and enforcing most of the rules that constitute FSMA. In essence, FDA is introducing more frequent food safety inspections and, for the first time, science-based prevention-oriented mandatory standards for different stakeholders in the U.S. food supply chain. These standards pertain to five key areas: food preventive controls; produce safety; import safety; intentional adulteration of food; and sanitary transportation of food.
Since FSMA was enacted in 2011, several rules have slowly yet successfully evolved from the proposal stage to the final stage, with five of the FDA’s seven proposed foundational rules being finalized and published last year. These five rules relate to the areas of food preventive controls, produce safety, and import safety. A rule of particular importance to the fresh produce industry is the produce safety rule, Standards for the Growing, Harvesting, Packing, and Holding of Produce for Human Consumption, which was issued on November 13, 2015.
For an overview of FSMA’s final foundational rules published so far and a discussion of their possible implications for the U.S. specialty crop industry in terms of costs and benefits, market structure, and public health concerns, click HERE.
A National Look at Crop Insurance Subsidy Per Acre
Lots discussion of crop insurance subsidy these days. Here is a breakdown of county average subsidy/acre in 2015. The average for the county is a function of the crops grown in the county. Generally highest values are in specialty crop regions. (Note some insurance programs are not reported by acre and are not included.)
Crop Insurance Subsidy Per Policy
It is crop insurance sign up time and I did a quick analysis of 2015 crop insurance subsidy per policy by crop for the entire U.S. Note subsidy is a function of rates, coverage levels, unit structure, quantity and value of the crop. What jumps out of this analysis is that specialty crops tend to top the list and that row crops are generally fairly far down the ranking. But some other special crops also fall near the bottom of the list
Commodity Name | Average Subsidy/Policy |
Strawberries |
$39,169 |
TOMATOES (FRESH MARKET) |
$39,064 |
ONIONS |
$36,845 |
Whole Farm Revenue Protection* |
$34,666 |
COTTON EX LONG STAPLE |
$27,797 |
POTATOES |
$27,780 |
TOBACCO – CIGAR WRAPPER |
$27,436 |
PRUNES |
$25,498 |
MACADAMIA TREES |
$24,928 |
PEPPERS |
$24,302 |
APPLES |
$23,881 |
MACADAMIA NUTS |
$23,533 |
NURSERY – FIELD GROWN & CONTAINER |
$22,292 |
Pistachios |
$21,428 |
BANANA TREE |
$19,029 |
MANDARINS/TANGERINES |
$18,277 |
TABLE GRAPES |
$17,388 |
TOBACCO – CIGAR BINDER |
$16,363 |
ALMONDS |
$16,324 |
SWEET POTATOES |
$15,583 |
CULTIVATED WILD RICE |
$14,133 |
CITRUS (TX) – RIO RED & STAR RUBY GRAPEFRUIT |
$14,066 |
CABBAGE |
$13,919 |
APRICOTS (PROCESSING) |
$12,994 |
TOMATOES |
$12,183 |
ALFALFA SEED |
$12,066 |
CHERRIES |
$11,535 |
PEACHES |
$11,044 |
COTTON |
$10,152 |
TOBACCO – FLUE CURED |
$9,979 |
CLAMS |
$9,840 |
BLUEBERRIES |
$9,115 |
CUCUMBERS |
$9,063 |
APRICOTS (FRESH) |
$8,689 |
FIGS |
$8,562 |
PECANS |
$8,118 |
CITRUS TREES (FL) – ORANGE |
$8,105 |
APICULTURE |
$7,760 |
NECTARINES (FRESH) |
$7,530 |
BEANS (DRY) |
$7,104 |
LEMONS |
$7,043 |
BEANS (FRESH MARKET) |
$6,777 |
AVOCADOS |
$6,696 |
GRASS SEED |
$6,406 |
SWEET CORN (FRESH MARKET) |
$6,294 |
PLUMS |
$6,197 |
GRAPES |
$6,116 |
SUNFLOWERS |
$5,931 |
CORN |
$5,847 |
CANOLA |
$5,780 |
ORANGES |
$5,575 |
PASTURE,RANGELAND,FORAGE |
$5,552 |
CITRUS TREES (FL) – GRAPEFRUIT |
$5,392 |
POPCORN |
$5,344 |
PEANUTS |
$5,175 |
WALNUTS |
$5,068 |
PEAS (DRY) |
$5,019 |
ANNUAL FORAGE |
$5,002 |
TOBACCO – BURLEY |
$4,887 |
Olives |
$4,819 |
MINT |
$4,661 |
BEANS (PROCESSING) |
$4,459 |
CITRUS TREES (FL) – AVOCADO |
$4,353 |
PAPAYA |
$4,323 |
WHEAT |
$4,277 |
BARLEY |
$4,208 |
RAISINS |
$4,173 |
MUSTARD |
$4,160 |
SUGARCANE |
$4,080 |
GRAPEFRUIT |
$3,975 |
PEACHES (CLING PROCESSING) |
$3,936 |
HYBRID SORGHUM SEED |
$3,927 |
RICE |
$3,902 |
BUCKWHEAT |
$3,792 |
SUGAR BEETS |
$3,715 |
CITRUS (TX) – LATE ORANGES |
$3,605 |
CITRUS TREES (FL) – CARAMBOLA |
$3,589 |
SAFFLOWER |
$3,531 |
SOYBEANS |
$3,525 |
GRAIN SORGHUM |
$3,464 |
PEACHES (FREESTONE FRESH) |
$3,392 |
SILAGE SORGHUM |
$3,195 |
FORAGE PRODUCTION |
$3,064 |
HYBRID CORN SEED |
$2,917 |
CRANBERRIES |
$2,826 |
SESAME |
$2,684 |
PEAS (GREEN) |
$2,670 |
TOBACCO – FIRE CURED |
$2,664 |
TANGELOS |
$2,529 |
PEARS |
$2,468 |
PEACHES (FREESTONE PROCESSING) |
$2,406 |
FLAX |
$2,224 |
RYE |
$2,099 |
CITRUS (TX) – RUBY RED GRAPEFRUIT |
$1,991 |
MILLET |
$1,929 |
BANANA |
$1,858 |
CITRUS TREES (FL) – ALL OTHER CITRUS TREES |
$1,645 |
COFFEE |
$1,590 |
CHILE PEPPERS |
$1,565 |
TANGORS |
$1,483 |
SWEET CORN |
$1,475 |
PUMPKINS |
$1,317 |
CITRUS (TX) – EARLY & MIDSEASON ORANGES |
$1,283 |
COFFEE TREE |
$1,233 |
CITRUS TREES (FL) – MANGO |
$954 |
Tangerine Trees |
$837 |
Camelina |
$831 |
FORAGE SEEDING |
$786 |
OATS |
$776 |
TOBACCO – DARK AIR |
$748 |
CITRUS TREES (FL) – LIME |
$497 |
TOBACCO – CIGAR FILLER |
$373 |
PAPAYA TREE |
$333 |
TOBACCO – MARYLAND |
$44 |
* Note Whole Farm Revenue Insurance covers multiple commodities.
2016 Crop Insurance Price Discovery
It is the time of year that RMA watches the futures market to determine an expected price (used in yield and revenue products) and the options market to estimate the price volatility used to rate revenue insurance products. The following table shows we are currently in price discovery for the February 28 sales closing date for several crops. These values will be updated through February 14.
Commodity | State Name | Sales Closing Date | Projected Price Market Symbol | Projected Price Date Range | Projected Price | Projected Price Status | Price Volatility | Price Volatility Status |
Rice | Mississippi | 2/28/2016 | ZRX16 | 01/15 – 02/14 | 0.117 | In Discovery | 0.15 | In Discovery |
Cotton | Mississippi | 2/28/2016 | CTZ16 | 01/15 – 02/14 | 0.62 | In Discovery | 0.15 | In Discovery |
Corn | Mississippi | 2/28/2016 | ZCZ16 | 01/15 – 02/14 | 3.89 | In Discovery | 0.17 | In Discovery |
Peanuts | Mississippi | 2/28/2016 | CTZ16,ZLZ16,ZMZ16,ZWZ16 | 01/15 – 02/14 | 0.2028 | In Discovery | 0.10 | In Discovery |
Soybeans | Mississippi | 2/28/2016 | ZSX16 | 01/15 – 02/14 | 8.87 | In Discovery | 0.14 | In Discovery |
Six questions for your crop insurance agent — Seven if you grow rice.
by Keith Coble and Brian Williams
- What about enterprise units?
To qualify for enterprise units you must have at least two sections, section equivalents, FSA farm numbers, or units established by written unit agreement. The requirements for enterprise units must be met for each of the irrigated and non-irrigated acreage for you to qualify for separate enterprise units by practice.
You may only elect to have separate enterprise units (EU) for both your irrigated and non-irrigated acreage and each must independently qualify as an enterprise unit. The additional subsidy associated with enterprise units versus basic and optional units are shown for various coverage levels in Table 1.
Table 1.
Coverage Level | Basic & Optional
Subsidy % |
Enterprise Unit Subsidy % | SCO Subsidy | STAX Subsidy % |
50% | 67% | 80% | 65% | |
55% | 64% | 80% | 65% | |
60% | 64% | 80% | 65% | |
65% | 59% | 80% | 65% | |
70% | 59% | 80% | 65% | 80% |
75% | 55% | 77% | 65% | 80% |
80% | 48% | 68% | 65% | 80% |
85% | 38% | 53% | 65% | 80% |
- May I qualify for trend adjusted yields?
Most crop yields reflect upward trends due to technological change. The Trend-Adjusted (TA) APH adjusts yields in APH databases to reflect increases in yields through time. Trend adjustments are made on each eligible yield within your APH based on the county’s historical yield trend. The actuarial documents provide the historical yield trend. The approved APH yield is calculated using trend-adjusted yields and any other applicable yields within the APH database. Note TA results in a higher approved yield and greater indemnity payments, which results in higher premium rates.
- May I qualify for APH yield exclusions?
The APH Yield Exclusion (YE) was created by the 2014 Farm Bill and allows for the exclusion of an actual yield for a crop year when RMA determines the county per planted acre yield for a crop year was at least 50 percent below the simple average of the per planted acre yield for the crop in the county for the previous 10 consecutive crop years. When a county triggers, contiguous counties are also eligible for YE. YE is determined separately for irrigated and non-irrigated acres. YE allows a producer to exclude an actual yield from the APH history for years where YE triggered. Multiple years may be excluded if the county data indicates triggering. YE results in a higher approved yield and greater indemnity payments which results in higher premium rates. One may utilize YE and trend adjustment simultaneously. Maps of the yield exclusion may be found at:
http://prodwebnlb.rma.usda.gov/apps/MapViewer/index.html
- What is the premium for different coverage levels?
Table 1 shows the subsidy percentage of different coverages, but keep in mind that the underlying rate goes up with the coverage level. Table 2 shows an example of how base rates vary for non-irrigated soybeans in Bolivar county Mississippi. For example the 85% coverage rate is 66% higher than 65% coverage. This reflects much higher probability of loss as coverage increases.
Coverage Level |
Rate differential |
0.5 |
0.627 |
0.55 |
0.74 |
0.6 |
0.864 |
0.65 |
1 |
0.7 |
1.148 |
0.75 |
1.307 |
0.8 |
1.478 |
0.85 |
1.66 |
- What about topping off individual coverage with SCO or STAX for cotton?
Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO) is companion policy with you underlying individual coverage that protects a portion of the deductible with and AREA triggered crop insurance layer of protection. The coverage starts at 86% and goes down to the individual coverage chosen by the producer. You only purchase SCO if you do not participate in the FSA Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) program. You may be participating in FSA Price Loss Coverage. As shown in Table 1, the Federal Government pays 65 percent of the premium cost for SCO.
Stacked Income Protection Program (STAX) for cotton functions similarly to SCO, The expected revenue and actual revenue are based on county yields as determined by RMA. The maximum coverage is 90% and the maximum range of payments is 90-70% of expected revenue. With STAX you do not have to purchase individual-level coverage.
- What about separate coverage levels by practice?
The 2014 farm bill also allowed for separate coverage for an irrigated and non-irrigated practice. If you have both practices for a crop, you may select one coverage level for all irrigated acreage and one coverage level for all non-irrigated acreage. For example, you may choose a 75% coverage level for all irrigated acreage and 65% percent coverage level for all non-irrigated acreage.
- If you grow rice, ask about margin insurance
Margin Protection (MP) is an area based plan that provides producers with coverage against an unexpected decrease in their operating margin. The plan provides coverage that is based on the expected area revenue minus the expected area operating costs, for each applicable crop, type and practice. The margin protection plan can be purchased by itself, or with Yield Protection or Revenue Protection policy. MP will be available in 2016 in select counties for corn, rice, soybeans, and spring wheat. In Mississippi MP will only be available for rice in 2016.
Generic Base Acreage Payment Credit Calculator
MSU-ES-GenericBasePaymentCreditCalculator If a farm has generic base acreage under the Agricultural Act of 2014, ARC-CO and PLC payments (if triggered) for Title I covered commodities planted on that farm will be coupled to the generic base acres. Because of this new relation of potential farm program payments to plantings, the potential cash flows from these programs should be included in the budgeting process for crop mix decisions. This spreadsheet is designed to help producers in making those calculations.
Farm Bill Learning Sessions Scheduled
Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC)
Price Loss Coverage (PLC)
Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO)
Stacked Income Protection Plan (STAX)
Farm Risk Management
Decision Aids
Five questions to ask About a Farm Bill Decision Aid
We have been modeling crop insurance and farm policy for years. Tremendous advances have been made in quantifying agricultural risk. As farmers face decisions regarding their participation in federal farm programs and crop insurance various decision aides have been developed to evaluate alternatives. Based on our experience, here are five questions to ask anyone who tells you they have a decision aide for evaluating the ARC/PLC choice.
- How does the decision aide account for uncertain prices and yields over the life of the bill?
Most spreadsheet aides are simply calculators, meaning they are ‘deterministic’ in that they calculate a payment based on the exact yields and prices provided. The problem, of course, is that one can’t possibly know with certainty what yields and prices will occur. How does the decision aid account for the likelihood of various prices and yields over the next 5 years when estimating payments?
- If the decision aid accounts for risk, what risks are modeled?
There are five major unknown variables that must be accounted for in any crop insurance, ARC, and/or PLC decision aide. These are: three prices – cash prices, futures market prices, market year average prices, and two yields – farm and county yield. Does the decision aid account for the likelihood of different outcomes for all of these unknown variables?
- If the decision aide accounts for risk, then how is the correlation of random variables handled?
These five unknown variables are not necessarily independent, meaning there is a relationship (or correlation) between them. In fact, there is good reason to believe that many of them are related. For example, farm and county yield are most likely positively correlated. In the Midwest, yield and price for corn likely have a negative relationship (as yield declines, corn price would increase). Cash, futures, and MYA price are likely positively correlated. Prices and yields across years are also often positively correlated (trends develop over time). There are more relationships, for example: a farm considering individual ARC with three crops potentially needs to account for 120 correlations. Modelling correlation is difficult, but very important and shouldn’t be avoided to accurately assess the farm program and crop insurance options.
- Does the model ask you for a lot of farm yield data?
Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman points out the problem of using only a few years of data to form expectations often provides faulty outcomes. Our research suggests that evaluations of farm-level crop insurance and farm program outcomes with less than ten years of farm yield data will be highly inaccurate.
- Does the decision aid help you understand risk protections as well as expected returns?
The new programs offered from the 2014 farm bill are intended to help farms reduce exposure to the risks of low price, low yield, or low revenue. Simply reporting the ‘deterministic’ expected payments – payments that come from one price and one yield – from the programs ignores the question of whether the payments help mitigate risk exposure. In other words, how does the farm program and crop insurance decision fit into the entire operation’s business portfolio?
In summary, predicting the future is extremely difficult. However, methods to provide guidance with respect to the uncertainty and correlation amongst the multitude of possible outcomes do exist but are often difficult to apply. Some of these are built into the current offering of decision aids provided by Texas A&M and Illinois, but few are available in simple spreadsheets built by others. For example, the two spreadsheets we have provided (CLICK HERE) only give the base reallocation calculation and the calculation of how generic acres will be distributed based on a given number of planted acres, both of which are simple calculators. While these types of “decision aids” can be very useful, keep the questions we pose here in mind as you evaluate the results generated from them.
2014 Farm Bill – Important Sign Up Dates
Dates associated with Cotton Transition Assistance Program (CTAP), Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) program and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) program that farm owners and producers need to know:
Aug. 11, 2014 through Oct. 7, 2014: Producers can enroll in CTAP at their local Farm Service Agency office.
Sept. 29, 2014 to Feb. 27, 2015: Land owners may visit their local Farm Service Agency office to update yield history and/or reallocate base acres.
Nov. 17, 2014 to March 31, 2015: Producers make a one-time election of either ARC or PLC for the 2014 through 2018 crop years.
Mid-April 2015 through summer 2015: Producers sign contracts for 2014 and 2015 crop years
Recent Comments