Author: Josh Maples

Cattle Quick Thoughts

The January 2017 cattle inventory report released this week showed total U.S. cattle inventory was up 1.8 percent compared to January 2016. Buried beneath this overall number are a 3.5 percent increase in beef cows and a 1.2 percent increase in replacements. Both of these numbers can be surprising given the lower prices throughout 2016 that many hoped would discourage further expansion. The drought in Mississippi left the state with fewer beef cows than last year (down 5 percent). However, the MS decline was vastly outweighed by increases in other states. More beef cows and replacement heifers not only mean more cattle now but also a larger calf crop to come. Prices are driven by two primary factors: supply and demand. The high prices we saw in 2014/15 were driven by historically low supply. The current increased number of cattle puts downward pressure on prices. Any positive support for prices in the near future will likely have to come from finding ways to grow demand for U.S. beef.

Cash Cattle:

The combination of the higher than expected placements in the cattle on feed report and the continued expansion mentioned above drove prices down significantly this week. Cash traded fed cattle were down $2.64 to an average of $118.76 for live sales compared to $121.40 last week. Dressed steers averaged $189.75 this week, down $3.80 last week. Trade volume was essentially the same as last week at 76,286 head.

Mississippi feeders weighing 450-500 pounds were down $4.50 at $139 while heavier 750-800 pound steers decreased $2 to $116.50 compared to $118.50 last week. Feeder prices in Oklahoma City for 500-550 pound steers were down $5.56 to $157.96 and OKC 750-800 pound steers averaged $126.22 which was down $6.57 from last week.

[… For more in depth Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE …]

Futures:

Live cattle futures and feeder futures continued to slide. February live cattle were down 95 cents at $117.10, while April live cattle were down $1.28 over last week to $115.73. March feeder cattle were down $3.40 from last Friday at $123.78 while April futures were down $2.88 on the week at $123.65. Corn futures prices bumped up slightly this week with March and May corn futures each up a penny at $3.64 and $3.71, respectively.

Beef:                                                                                          

Wholesale boxed beef prices were up this week with choice boxes averaging $192.88, up 79 cents from a week ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $189.85, an increase of $1.28 from last week. The choice-select spread decreased to just $3.03.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel unless stated otherwise.

Cattle Quick Thoughts

The U.S. beef cow herd expansion has been a primary point in the discussion of the decline of cattle prices since 2014. The USDA Cattle Inventory Report will be released this week on January 31^st and will offer insight into the state of the herd expansion. I expect the report to show that the U.S. beef cow herd continued to grow in 2016, although at a slower pace that the 3.5% increase we saw over 2015. Of particular interest to Southeastern producers will be the impact of the drought on the cow herds in Mississippi and surrounding states.

Cash Cattle:

Fed cattle cash prices took a step backward this week. Cash traded fed cattle were down 48 cents to an average of $121.40 for live sales compared to $121.89 last week. Dressed steers averaged $193.58 this week, down from $194.82 last week. Trade volume was 76,057 head, down about 30,000 head from last week.

Mississippi steer prices were a mixed bag this week depending on weight class. Feeders weighing 450-500 pounds were up $2 at $142.50 while heavier 750-800 pound steers saw a price bump to an average of $118.50 compared to $117.50 last week. However, steers between 500 and 700 pounds experienced decreases in average prices.

Feeder prices in Oklahoma City for 500-550 pound steers were up $3.43 to $163.52 and OKC 750-800 pound steers averaged $132.79 which was up 63 cents from last week.

[ … For more in depth Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE …  ]

Futures:

Live cattle futures and feeder futures dropped this week. February live cattle were down $2.10 on the week at $118.05, while April live cattle were down $1.95 over last week to $117. March feeder cattle were down $4.35 from last Friday at $127.18 while April futures were down $3.82 on the week at $126.53. Corn futures prices also dropped this week with March corn down $0.07 to $3.63 and May corn futures down 7 cents to $3.70 as compared to last week.

Beef:                                                                                           

Wholesale boxed beef prices were up this week with choice boxes averaging $192.09, up 44 cents from a week ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $188.57, an increase of $1.19 from last week. The choice-select spread shrunk further to $3.52.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel unless stated otherwise.

Cash Cattle:

Cattle prices were higher in most markets this week. Cash traded fed cattle were up $1.68 to an average of $120.15 for live sales compared to $118.48 last week. Dressed steers averaged $194.82 this week. Trade volume was back up to 105,110 head after a down week of only 8,680 head reported last week.

Steer prices in Mississippi were higher across all weight classes this week except for calves under 400 pounds. Feeders weighing 450-500 pounds were up $1.50 at $140.50 compared to $139.00 last week. Heavier 750-800 pound steers averaged $117.50, a $4.00 increase over last week’s average of $113.50.

Oklahoma City 500-550 pound steers were up $3.83 to $160.09 after averaging $156.26 a week ago. OKC 750-800 pound steers averaged $132.16 which was down 52 cents from last week.

[ … For more in depth Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE …  ]

Futures:

Live cattle futures and feeder futures continued their upward trajectory this week. February live cattle were up $1.68 on the week at $120.15, while April live cattle were up $1.15 over last week to $118.95. January feeder cattle were up $2.65 from last Friday at $132.95 while March futures are up $2.30 on the week at $131.53. Corn futures prices also rose this week with March corn up $0.11 to $3.70 and May corn futures up a dime to $3.76 as compared to last week.

Beef:                                                                                           

Wholesale boxed beef prices declined this week with choice boxes averaging $191.65, down 35 cents from a week ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $187.38, a decrease of $1.21 from last week. The choice-select spread rose $0.86 to $4.27 this week, though still well below the 5-year average of $9.34.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel unless stated otherwise.

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle were up $0.67 this week to an average of $118.44 for live sales compared to $117.67 last week. Very little volume was reported this week, however, with only 8,680 head reported for the week – down from 72,821 last week.

The first reported prices in 2017 for Oklahoma City 500-550 pound steers averaged $156.26 while 750-800 pound steers averaged $132.68. During this week in Mississippi auctions, lighter weight feeders weighing 450-500 pounds averaged $139.00, while heavy steers averaged $113.50.

[ … For more in depth Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE …  **Please note: there is quite a bit of missing data for last week due to the limited reporting during the holidays**]

Futures:

Live cattle futures and feeder futures rallied this week. February live cattle were up $3.66 on the week at $118.48, while April live cattle were up $3.60 to $117.8 over last week. January feeder cattle were up $1.80 from last Friday at $130.30 while March futures are up $5.20 on the week at $129.23. March and May corn futures are each up a penny from a week ago at $3.59 and $3.66, respectively.

Beef:                                                                                           

Wholesale boxed beef prices are declined this week with choice boxes averaging $192, down $9.84 from a week ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $188.59, a decrease of $5.03 over last week. The choice-select spread shrunk to just $3.41 this week

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel, unless stated otherwise.