Author: Josh Maples

Cattle Quick Thoughts

The February meat exports report was released this week by USDA. Overall, the trend of strong export numbers continued. Total beef exports in February 2017 were 9 percent higher than February 2016. The value of U.S. beef exports totaled about $505 million, 16 percent higher than the same period last year. The U.S. Meat Export Federation estimated that the value of exports per head of fed cattle to be $278, up 16 percent from last year. Year to date 2017, beef exports are 13 percent higher in volume and 17 percent higher in volume than a year ago. February exports accounted for about 13 percent of total beef production, similar to a year ago.

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle were down $6.17 to an average of $121.71 for live sales. Dressed steers were down $7.97 to an average of $197.37. Fed cattle trade volume was just over 17,000 head.

Mississippi feeder steers weighing 450-500 pounds were down $4 this week to average $150.50 while 750-800 pound steers were down $3 at $119.50. Average feeder prices in Oklahoma City for 500-550 pound steers were up $5.56 to $165.56 while OKC 750-800 pound steers were down $1.58 from last week to $135.38.

[ … For more in depth Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE… ]

Futures:

Cattle futures prices were mostly steady to slightly higher this week. April live cattle were up 8 cents to $120 while June live cattle were up 90 cents to $111.78. April feeder cattle were down 10 cents to $133.65 while May feeder futures were up $1.40 on the week to $132.80. Corn futures prices were down this week with May and July futures each down a nickel to $3.59 and $3.67, respectively.

Beef:                                                                                          

Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower this week. Choice boxes averaged $209.99, down $7.16 from a week ago. Select boxes ended the week at an average of $200, down $9.79 from last week. The choice-select spread was $9.99, up $2.63 from last week.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel unless stated otherwise.

Cattle Quick Thoughts

Mississippi cattle prices have shown steady improvements since mid-February. Average auction prices for lighter weight (500-550lb) and heavier (750-800lb) steers are each about $10/cwt higher than six weeks ago. Perhaps the most impressive 2017 MS price rally has been in cull cow prices. Boning utility cull cows ended the week at $67.50/cwt – up about $17 or 25% since the end of January. While cull cow prices are historically seasonal, the increase we’ve seen over the past two months is higher than normal. For comparison, the average seasonal rally for this time of year is about $8/cwt or 10% (see this comparison in a chart HERE). These seasonal rallies are usually not followed by immediate sharp declines as they are supported by stronger ground beef demand during the warmer months. Cull cow prices in Mississippi have historically held steady during April to August over the past five years. During these months, the five-year average low is only $3 below the average high. Cull prices generally deteriorate significantly after September each year.

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle dropped slightly to an average of $127.88 for live sales, $1.07 lower than last week. Dressed steers were down $7.63 to an average of $205.34. Fed cattle trade volume was just under 53,000 head.

Mississippi auction prices were steady to slightly higher this week. Feeder steers weighing 450-500 pounds were a buck higher this week to $154.50 while 750-800 pound steers were unchanged at $122.50. Average feeder prices in Oklahoma City for 500-550 pound steers were down $5.74 to $160 while OKC 750-800 pound steers were up $3.85 over last week to $136.96.

[ … For more in depth Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE… ]

Futures:

Cattle futures prices decreased this week after six straight weeks of gains. April live cattle were down $2.15 to $119.93 while June live cattle were down $1.85 to $110.88. April feeder cattle were down $1.75 to $133.75 while May feeder futures dropped $1.47 on the week to $132.40. Corn futures prices were up this week with May and July futures each up 9 cents to $3.64 and $3.72, respectively.

Beef:                                                                                          

Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower this week, ending an impressive five-week rally. Choice boxes averaged $217.15, down $5.97 from a week ago. Select boxes ended the week at an average of $209.79, down $5.51 from last week. The choice-select spread was $7.36, down 46 cents from last week.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel unless stated otherwise.

 

Cattle Quick Thoughts

The ongoing scandal in the Brazilian meatpacking industry is impacting the flow of beef around the world. Some meatpacking companies in Brazil are under investigation for allegedly bribing food sanitation inspectors according to a recent report by the Wall Street Journal. This is a big deal because Brazil is the world’s largest exporter of beef. China and other key countries have suspended or reduced the amount of beef imported from Brazil as the investigation unfolds. While the U.S. cannot export directly to China, China will likely be forced increase imports from Australia, Argentina, and Canada until the situation in Brazil clears. The U.S. likely indirectly benefits for this as some of our trading partners also import from these countries. Increased competition will likely lead these trading partners to turn to more U.S. beef. It remains unclear how long this will last as China could resume trade with Brazil at any time and the indirect benefits to the U.S. could be short-lived. How this unfolds could have significant impacts on U.S. beef exports. The U.S. imports very little beef from Brazil and the USDA Food Safety Inspection Service (FSIS) has reported that “none of the slaughter or processing facilities implicated in the Brazilian scandal have shipped meat products to the United States.” FSIS has also instituted a 100% re-inspection rule on all beef from Brazil.

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle were up slightly to an average of $128.95 for live sales, 20 cents higher than last week. Dressed steers were up $4.94 to an average of $212.97. Fed cattle trade volume was little over 26,000 head.

Mississippi feeder steers weighing 450-500 pounds were $4 lower this week to $153.50 while 750-800 pound steers were up $6 to $122.50. Average feeder prices in Oklahoma City for 500-550 pound steers were up $13.06 to $165.74 while OKC 750-800 pound steers were up $3.16 over last week to $133.11.

[ … For more in depth Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE … ]

Futures:

Cattle futures prices surged the week. April live cattle were up $3.08 over last week to $122.08 while June live cattle were up $3.35 to $112.73. March feeder cattle were up $2.30 to $133.50 while April feeder futures increased $4 on the week to $135.50. Corn futures prices were down this week with May and July futures each down 12 cents to $3.55 and $3.63, respectively.

Beef:                                                                                          

Wholesale boxed beef prices were up again this week. Choice boxes averaged $223.12, up $1.56 from a week ago. Select boxes ended the week at an average of $215.30, an increase of $1.76 from last week. The choice-select spread decreased slightly to $8.02, down 20 cents from last week.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel unless stated otherwise.

Cattle Quick Thoughts

This week marked the fourth consecutive weekly increase in choice wholesale boxed beef prices. In total, choice boxed beef averaged $32.63 higher in the week ending March 17^th than in the week of February 17^th. The fact that boxed beef prices have increased is not necessarily surprising – prices followed a similar trend during this time last year (click HERE to see this in a chart). However, what is different this year is the magnitude of the rally and that it has occurred with larger beef production. The four consecutive weekly price increases from February 19^th to March 18^th in 2016 saw the average choice boxed beef price go up a total of $17.93. Also, average weekly beef production is 33 million pounds (7 percent) higher over the past four weeks of 2017 as compared to the same weeks in 2016. These are good signs for the current state of beef demand and welcome news for cattle prices.

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle were up $3.50 to an average of $128.75 for live sales while dressed steers were up $6.46 to an average of $208.03. Fed cattle trade volume was about the same as last week at just under 105,000 head.

Mississippi feeder steers weighing 450-500 pounds were up $3.50 to $157.50 while 750-800 pound steers were down $4.50 to $116.50. Average feeder prices in Oklahoma City for 500-550 pound steers were down $5.16 to $152.68 while OKC 750-800 pound steers were up $1.89 over last week to $129.95.

[ … For more in depth Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE … ]

Futures:

Futures prices again finished the week higher across the board. April live cattle were up $1.45 over last week to $119 while June live cattle were up $1.78 to $109.38. Feeder cattle futures showed even more impressive gains. March feeder cattle were up $3.65 from last Friday to $131.20 while April feeder futures increased $4.70 on the week to $131.50. Corn futures prices were up slightly this week with May and July futures each up 3 cents to $3.67 and $3.75, respectively.

Beef:                                                                                          

Wholesale boxed beef prices continued to rally this week. Choice boxes averaged $221.56, up $7.44 from a week ago. Select boxes ended the week at an average of $213.54, an increase of $6.28 from last week. The choice-select spread increased to $8.02, up $1.16 over last week.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel unless stated otherwise.

Cattle Quick Thoughts

Demand for beef in export markets started 2017 strong according to the most recent report. USDA ERS released the livestock trade data totals for January 2017 on March 9^th. Exports in the month of January 2017 were 21 percent higher than in January 2016, an increase of over 36 million pounds. While there are many reasons why exports have increased, the price of beef is an important factor in the quantity of beef demanded in the export market. The average select boxed beef price was $217.52 for January 2016 compared to $189.54 for January 2017. Consumers generally demand more beef when prices are lower. On the import side, beef imports in January 2017 were 20 percent lower than in January 2016 – down almost 59 million pounds.

Cash Cattle:

Cash cattle showed gains in most markets. Cash traded fed cattle were higher again this week –  up 42 cents to an average of $125.25 for live sales while dressed steers were up $1.58 to an average of $201.57. Fed cattle trade volume was just over 103,000 head.

Mississippi feeder steers weighing 450-500 pounds were up $3 to $154 while 750-800 pound steers were up a buck to $121. Feeder prices in Oklahoma City for 500-550 pound steers were up $1.21 to $157.84 while OKC 750-800 pound steers were up $2.43 from last week to $128.06.

[ … For more in depth Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE … ]

Futures:

Futures prices finished the week higher across the board. April live cattle were up $1.52 over last week to $117.55 while June live cattle were up 82 cents to $107.60. March feeder cattle were up $3.58 from last Friday to $127.55 while April feeder futures increased $3.95 on the week to $126.80. Corn futures prices dropped this week with March and May futures each down 16 cents to $3.58 and $3.64, respectively.

Beef:                                                                                          

Wholesale boxed beef prices continued to strengthen this week. Choice boxes averaged $214.12, up $8.26 from a week ago. Select boxes ended the week at an average of $207.26, an increase of $5.45 from last week. The choice-select spread increased to $6.86, up $2.81 from last week.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel unless stated otherwise.

Cattle Quick Thoughts

The past two weeks have seen sizable increases in boxed beef prices. Average choice box price is up nearly $17 over the week ending February 17^th. Likewise, we have seen increases in fed cattle cash prices. Live steers are up about $6 while dressed steers are up $12 over the past two weeks. Both of these indicate that finished cattle might be a little hard to find right now. However, live cattle futures prices suggest these prices are unlikely to maintain into the Spring and Summer months. The June Live Cattle contract is currently $10 lower than the April contract. There has been a pretty significant divide between these two contracts for the past few months (average of $9.83 since January 1). Much of this has to do with the expectation of more slaughter-ready cattle to be marketed in early Spring and lasting throughout the summer. Higher placements into feedlots beginning in November 2016 suggest that there will be a larger number of finished cattle over the next few months which is likely to lead to lower live cattle prices.

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle continued to climb this week –  up 45 cents to an average of $124.83 for live sales while dressed steers were up $4.07 to an average of $199.99 this week. Trade volume was just over 134,000 head, up from 119,000 head last week.

Mississippi feeder steers weighing 450-500 pounds were up $7.50 to $151 while 750-800 pound steers were up $1.50 to $120. Feeder prices in Oklahoma City for 500-550 pound steers were down $4.07 to $156.63 while OKC 750-800 pound steers dropped $3.32 from last week to $125.63.

[ … For more in depth Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE …]

Futures:

Futures prices finished the week higher across the board. April live cattle were up 93 cents over last week to $116.03 while June live cattle were up $1.83 cents to $106.78. March feeder cattle were up $1.82 from last Friday at $123.98 while April futures increased 90 cents on the week at $122.85. Corn futures prices were up this week with March futures up a dime at $3.74 and May futures up 9 cents at $3.80.

Beef:                                                                                          

Wholesale boxed beef prices were up significantly this week with Choice boxes averaging $205.86, up $11.38 from a week ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $201.81, an increase of $9.94 from last week. The choice-select spread increased by $1.44 to $4.05.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel unless stated otherwise.

Cattle Quick Thoughts

The Central Mississippi Producer Advisory Council Meeting was held in Raymond on February 22^nd. This meeting was designed to give producers across all commodities the opportunity to discuss issues important to their operations and that they would like MSU to look into. One piece of feedback I received in the beef room is that this Cattle Market Notes Newsletter should include prices for feedstuffs and for more weight classes of cattle in Mississippi auctions than just the 450-500 and 750-800 ranges listed below. This is a good comment! While I only include a few weight classes in the text of this newsletter to conserve space, prices for the full set of weight classes for MS steers and heifers (along with prices from other states, feedstuffs, cull prices, and historical trends) are available in a Google spreadsheet online by clicking HERE . This document is updated each week and a link is included in each newsletter after the cash cattle section.

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle rallied this week up $5.41 to an average of $124.38 for live sales compared to $118.97 last week. Dressed steers were up even higher to an average of $195.92 this week, an increase of $8.48 over last week. Trade volume was just over 119,000 head which was up significantly from last week’s total of 14,159 head.

Mississippi feeder steers weighing 450-500 pounds held steady at $143.50 while 750-800 pound steers were up $3 to $118.50 compared to $115.50 last week. Feeder prices in Oklahoma City for 500-550 pound steers were down 86 cents to $160.70 and OKC 750-800 pound steers averaged $128.95 which was up a nickel over last week.

[ … For more in depth Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE …  ]

Futures:

The Cattle on Feed report was released on Friday afternoon and had an impact on end of the week futures prices (I’ll post in-depth cattle on feed comments on the Ag Econ blog early next week).  April live cattle were up 32 cents over last week to $115.10 while June live cattle were down 22 cents to $104.95. March feeder cattle were down $1.82 from last Friday at $122.15 while April futures were down $2.22 on the week at $121.95. Corn futures prices were down slightly this week with March and May corn futures each down 4 cents at $3.64 and $3.71, respectively.

Beef:                                                                                          

Wholesale boxed beef prices were up this week with Choice boxes averaging $194.48, up $5.55 from a week ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $191.87, an increase of $4.19 from last week. The choice-select spread increased to $2.61.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel unless stated otherwise.

Cattle Quick Thoughts

U.S. cattle cycles have flattened over time as the difference between the lowest and highest beef cow inventory levels within a cycle has decreased. This was discussed in depth in a recent fact sheet published by Kansas State University Ag Economics Professor Dr. Glynn Tonsor and Ph.D. student James Mitchell (available HERE).  One of the primary reasons that inventory variability within a cycle has decreased is that we have consistently been able to produce more beef per animal through increased slaughter weights. Thus, when the herd shrinks, higher slaughter weights can help offset some of the loss in pounds caused by fewer animals. What remains to be seen is whether slaughter weights will decrease by much in 2017 in response to more cattle. For each month between May and December 2016, slaughter weights were slightly lower than in the same month in 2015. However, 2016 weights were still significantly higher than the 2010-2014 average. We will get our first glimpse of 2017 weights next week when the next Livestock Slaughter report is released.

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle were down 78 cents to an average of $118.97 for live sales compared to $119.75 last week. Dressed steers were down to an average of $187.44 this week, a decrease of $2.62 since last week. Trade volume was low at just 14,000 head, down significantly from last week’s total of 81,360 head.

Mississippi feeder steers weighing 450-500 pounds were up $2.50 at $143.50 while 750-800 pound steers were up $2 to $115 compared to $113 last week. Feeder prices in Oklahoma City for 500-550 pound steers were up $2.34 to $161.56 and OKC 750-800 pound steers averaged $128.90 which was up $1.06 from last week.

[ … For more in depth Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE …]

Futures:

Live cattle futures and feeder futures rebounded this week. February live cattle were up $1.60 at $118, while April live cattle were up $1.63 over last week to $114.78. March feeder cattle were up $1.90 from last Friday at $123.98 while April futures were up $1.72 on the week at $124.18. Corn futures prices dipped this week with March and May corn futures down 5 and 6 cents at $3.68 and $3.75, respectively.

Beef:                                                                                          

Wholesale boxed beef prices were mostly unchanged this week with choice boxes averaging $188.93, down 46 cents from a week ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $187.68, an increase of 40 cents from last week. The choice-select spread is at just $1.25.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel unless stated otherwise.

Cattle Quick Thoughts

Recent reports show that beef exports volumes were up 24 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016 as compared to Q4 of 2015. This is encouraging news as we will need to continue to find buyers for the increasing production of U.S. beef. Beef production in 2016 Q4 was up 8 percent over a year earlier. Exports to South Korea have played a key role in the export gains as shipments in December 2016 were up 90 percent over December 2015.

The Mississippi Cattlemen’s Association held their annual convention on Saturday, February 11^th. Dr. Brian Williams and I shared a brief cattle outlook with a primary focus on cattle inventory. You can access our PowerPoint presentation HERE .

Cash Cattle:

Cash traded fed cattle were up 99 cents to an average of $119.75 for live sales compared to $118.76 last week. Dressed steers were up 28 cents to an average of $190.06 this week. Trade volume was up about 5,000 head over last week to 81,360 head.

Mississippi feeders weighing 450-500 pounds were up $4.50 at $143.50 while 750-800 pound steers decreased $3.50 to $113 compared to $116.50 last week. Feeder prices in Oklahoma City for 500-550 pound steers were up $1.26 to $159.22 and OKC 750-800 pound steers averaged $127.84 which was up $1.62 from last week.

[ … For more in depth Livestock Prices and Production data and trends CLICK HERE …]

Futures:

Live cattle futures and feeder futures dipped even further this week. February live cattle were down 70 cents at $116.40, while April live cattle were down $2.57 over last week to $113.15. March feeder cattle were down $1.70 from last Friday at $122.08 while April futures were down $1.20 on the week at $122.45. Corn futures prices bumped up slightly this week with March and May corn futures each up 9 and 10 cents at $3.73 and $3.81, respectively.

Beef:                                                                                          

Wholesale boxed beef prices fell this week with choice boxes averaging $189.39, down $3.49 from a week ago. Select boxes ended the week with an average of $187.28, a decrease of $2.57 from last week. The choice-select spread shrunk to $2.11.

Note: all cattle and beef prices are quoted in dollars per hundredweight and corn prices are quoted in dollars per bushel unless stated otherwise.