Heifer Price Seasonality

Last week we looked at steer price seasonal patterns in Mississippi (view that post HERE). This week, we are examining the same story but for heifer prices. The back story from last week about why seasonality matters is the same for heifers as it is for steers. Rather than repeat it, I’m going to focus on some seasonal differences between steers and heifers.

The graph above is a seasonal price index that shows how much monthly average prices differ from annual average prices. This is calculated by dividing each month’s average price by the average annual price. Next, the monthly average across the years of data is calculated to obtain an average price index. The price index calculated in this article has a base value of 1. This implies that if a given months price index is 1, the average price in that month is equal to the average annual price. If a monthly index value is 1.05, then the average price in that month is five percent higher than the annual average.

Mississippi heifer prices over the past 7 years in Mississippi generally follow the same pattern as steer prices – higher prices in the early Spring months and lower prices in the Fall. A few key differences stand out though when we look at specific weight classes. The percentage range is larger with heifers for some lasses. 500-600 pound steers range from 7% higher than average in March to 8% lower than average in October. For heifers, the range is 6% high and 12% low — an 18% range in a “normal” year. The length of time those five-weight heifers are seasonally lower on average also lasts longer than for steers as November is even lower than October. The “Low” for each weight class is lower for heifers than it is for steers. Remember, these “Lows” are relative to the annual average price for each sex.

There are a few caveats that are worth mentioning here. In general, there are more steers sold in each weight group than heifers and thus the price data each week is probably a little accurate for steers than heifers. If there are few heifers traded in a week but those few are really good (or bad), that can strongly influence those prices. Because this analysis was done over seven years, those issues are outweighed by values other years and no single week has a huge impact on the index.

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