Latest USDA Supply and Demand Report Still Shows Bumper Crop in 2016/17

The USDA made several updates for the 2016/17 crop year in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. The USDA is projecting 94.5 million acres of corn were planted this year, and of that 86.8 million acres are expected to be harvested, a 200,000 acre increase from last month’s estimate. Corn yield for the 2016/17 crop year is projected at 173.4 bu/acre a 1.0 bu/acre decrease from the September estimate and in-line with pre-report expectations. If the acreage and yield hold true, U.S. producers are expected to produce a record 15.057 billion bushels of corn. Feed and residual use as well as ethanol use were unchanged. Exports were increased by 50 million bushels, leaving ending stocks down by 64 million bushels from a month ago. Global production was reduced by nearly 1 million metric tons with lower U.S. production being offset by higher Brazilian production. An increase in global feed use has eaten up some of the surplus global production, reducing ending stocks by about 2.5 million metric tons globally. Mississippi producers are expected to average 167 bu/acre on corn this year, down 5 bu/acre from a month ago and behind last year’s 175 bu/acre benchmark.

 The 2015/16 soybean balance saw several changes from the September WASDE report. Soybean harvested acres were left unchanged at 83.0 million acres while yields were bumped up by 0.8 bu/acre to 51.4 bu/acre, right in line with pre-report expectations. The higher yields left soybean production up 68 million bushels from a month ago. Soybean crush was unchanged from a month ago but exports are up 40 million bushels from last month’s estimates. Ending stocks were increased 30 million bushels to 395 million bushels. Global soybean production is almost 2.8 million metric tons higher than a month ago, driven almost entirely by higher U.S. and Brazilian production. Higher production combined with higher global carryover has global ending stocks up just over 5 million metric tons from last month’s estimates. Mississippi soybean producers are expected to see slightly higher soybean yields than a year ago at 48 bu/acre compared to 46 bu/acre a year ago and last month’s estimate of 47 bu/acre.

 The 2015/16 wheat crop balance sheet saw several minor changes. Acreage was reduced by 200,000 acres while wheat yields were unchanged from a month ago. The reduction in acreage left U.S. wheat production down by 11 million bushels. Food use was unchanged while feed use was reduced by 70 million bushels. Exports were increased by 25 million bushels, leaving ending stocks 38 million bushels higher than a month ago. Globally, wheat production was reduced slightly with several countries seeing small revisions. Global ending stocks were down by 0.7 million metric tons.

 The cotton balance sheet saw a few revisions this month as well. Cotton harvested acres was unchanged at 9.66 million acres while yields were reduced by 5 pounds per acre. Those changes left cotton production down slightly at 16.03 million bales. Domestic use was unchanged from last month, but exports were increased by 500,000 bales leaving ending stocks down by 600,000 bales at 4.3 million bales. Global cotton production was increased by 220,000 million bales with several countries seeing small revisions. The increase in production combined with lower carryover from 2015/16 and higher global use left global ending stocks down 2.46 million bales. Mississippi producers are expecting improved cotton yields this year at 1,159 pounds per acre, unchanged from last month and higher than last year’s yield of 1,024 pounds per acre.