The corn balance sheet for the 2015/16 crop saw a few changes in disappearance from the April release. Feed use was and ethanol were both left unchanged while exports were increased by 75 million bushels. Corn imports were increased by 5 million bushels while production was left unchanged for the 2015/16 crop. Ending stocks for the 2015/16 crop were estimated to be 1.803 billion bushels, down 59 million bushels from last month’s estimate. The first estimates for the 2016/17 crop year were also released. The USDA is projecting 93.6 million acres of corn to be planted this year, and of that 85.9 million acres are expected to be harvested. The planted acres number was also reported in the March 31 Prospective Plantings report while harvested acres are projected based on historical abandonment and silage harvest. Corn yield for the 2016/17 crop year is projected at 168 bu/acre and represents a weather-adjusted trend yield. If the acreage and yield hold true, U.S. producers are expected to produce a record 14.43 billion bushels of corn. This number comes in about 279 million bushels higher than the average trade expectation. Feed and residual use is expected to be about 300 million bushels higher in the 2016/17 crop year than a year ago, which is a reflection of increased production from beef, poultry, and pork. Ethanol use is expected to increase by 50 million bushels while exports are expected to be up 175 million bushels. Despite the year-over-year increase in demand in all major categories, 2016/17 ending stocks are expected to be 350 million bushels higher than the 2015/16 stocks at an estimated 2,153 million bushels. This comes in about 141 million bushels below the average trade expectation.
The 2015/16 soybean balance sheet also a few changes from the April WASDE report. Soybean harvested acres and yields were left unchanged at 81.8 million acres and 48 bu/acre, respectively. Soybean crush was up 10 million bushels from a month ago while exports are up 35 million bushels from last month’s estimates. Ending stocks for 2015/16 were down 45 million bushels 400 million bushels. The USDA is projecting 82.7 million acres of soybeans to be planted this year, and of that 81.8 million acres are expected to be harvested. The planted acres number was also reported in the March 31 Prospective Plantings report while harvested acres are projected based on historical abandonment. Soybean yield for the 2016/17 crop year is projected at 46.7 bu/acre and represents a weather-adjusted trend yield. U.S. producers are expected to produce 3.8 billion bushels of soybeans. This number comes in very close to the average trade expectation. Soybean crush is expected to be about 35 million bushels higher in the 2016/17 crop year than a year ago, while exports are expected to be up 145 million bushels. With the year-over-year increase in demand in all major categories as well as slightly lower production, 2016/17 ending stocks are expected to be 95 million bushels lower than 2015/16 stocks at an estimated 305 million bushels. This comes in well below the 405 million bushels that traders were expecting.
The 2015/16 wheat crop balance sheet saw only a few minor changes. Food use was lowered by 7 million bushels, while exports were increased by 5 million bushels. Ending stocks for wheat came in at 978 million bushels, up 2 million bushels from a month ago. The USDA is projecting 49.6 million acres of wheat to be planted this year, and of that 42.8 million acres are expected to be harvested. The planted acres number was also reported in the March 31 Prospective Plantings report while harvested acres are reported in the May USDA Crop Production Report. Wheat yield for the 2016/17 crop year is projected at 46.7 bu/acre and is also reported in the May USDA Crop Production Report. U.S. producers are expected to produce 1.998 billion bushels of wheat. This number comes in 17 million bushels below the average trade expectation. Wheat food use as well as seed use are both expected to be about 3 million bushels higher in the 2016/17 crop year than a year ago, while exports are expected to be up 95 million bushels. Wheat feed use is expected to be 30 million bushels higher. Despite the year-over-year increase in demand, 2016/17 ending stocks are expected to be 51 million bushels higher than 2015/16 stocks at an estimated 1.029 billion bushels. Mississippi yields are expected to be 55 bu/acre, up 7 bu/acre from a year ago, while production in the state is projected to be 1.91 million bushels lower at 3.85 million bushels.
The cotton balance sheet saw a few minor revisions this month. Cotton production was up slightly at 12.89 million bales as a result of a slight increase in harvested acres. Domestic use was unchanged from last month, while exports were reduced by 500,000 bales. Ending stocks for 2015/16 are up 500,000 bales at 4 million bales. The USDA is projecting 9.56 million acres of cotton to be planted this year, and of that 8.8 million acres are expected to be harvested. The planted acres number was also reported in the March 31 Prospective Plantings report while harvested acres are projected based on historical abandonment. Cotton yield for the 2016/17 crop year is projected at 807 lbs/acre and represents a 3-year average weighted by region. U.S. producers are expected to produce 14.8 million bales of cotton, up 1.91 million bales from a year ago. Domestic cotton use is expected to be the same as a year ago, while exports are expected to be up 1.5 million bales. Cotton ending stocks are expected to be 700,000 bales higher than 2015/16 stocks at an estimated 4.7 million bales.
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