Ending Stocks Revised Up for Most Major Crops in July Supply and Demand Estimates

Friday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) left new crop U.S. corn ending stocks 75 million bushels higher than a month ago. U.S. new crop corn production is lower at 13.860 billion bushels as a result of fewer planted acres. The new production number would still mark the second largest corn crop in history. New crop ending stocks are estimated to be 1.801 billion bushels, while old crop ending stocks are estimated to be 1.246 billion bushels. Feed and residual use was revised down by 50 million bushels while the rest of the balance sheet remained unchanged. On the global corn market, ending stocks for the 2014/15 crop are estimated to be 5.4 million metric tons higher than a year ago with much of this increase is the result of higher stocks in the U.S. and Brazil.

Old crop U.S. soybean stocks were increased by 15 million bushels from last month’s estimate to 140 million bushels, higher than trade expectations of 128 million bushels. The major movement for soybeans came in the new crop 2014/15 soybean balance sheet, reflecting major changes in planted acres released a couple of weeks ago. Ending stocks are 90 million bushels higher than June estimates at 415 million bushels. That figure is nearly three times the size of the 2013/14 ending stocks number. Production was revised up by 165 million bushels to reflect the increase in planted acres, while yield remained unchanged from a month ago. Soybean disappearance was changed in a few categories to absorb some of the increase in production. Soybean crush was revised 40 million bushels higher and soybean exports were revised 50 million bushels higher as a result of continued strong demand for U.S. soybeans. Global soybean ending stocks were raised by 2.43 million metric tons from June’s estimates, with much of the increase coming from larger U.S. production.

The new crop 2014/15 wheat ending stocks were raised by 86 million bushels from the May report. The USDA revising wheat yields up by 0.8 bu/acre to 43.1 bu/acre and increased acreage by 300,000 acres. Production is 50 million bushels higher than last month’s estimates while exports and feed use are both lower.

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