June 30 USDA Reports Prove to be Major Market Movers

Two major market-moving reports were released today in the Quarterly Grain Stock Report and the Acreage report. There were no big surprises in the acreage report with respect to corn. Planted corn acres are estimated to be 91.64 million acres, a 50,000 acre decrease from the prospective plantings report. Pre-report trade estimates were expecting a slight increase in corn acres, but the final number was well within the range of expectations. Mississippi’s planted acres were revised down by 40,000 acres compared to the March Prospective Plantings report. Among the states with the largest declines in acreage are Iowa and Kansas with 400,000 and 300,000 fewer acres, respectively while Indiana and Missouri each have an increase of 200,000 acres. The quarterly grain stocks report has corn stocks as of June 1, 2014 estimated to be at 3.85 billion bushels, 39% higher than a year ago and toward the high end of the range of pre-report expectations. The weekly crop progress report was also released today, and the condition of the U.S. crop continues to look good with 75% of the crop rated in good or excellent condition. Mississippi’s corn crop is rated 70% good or excellent.

Soybeans had the biggest surprise with an estimated 84.839 million acres estimated to be planted. This marks a 3.3 million acre increase over the prospective plantings report released in March and is nearly 2.7 million acres higher than market expectations. Only two states saw a reduction in soybean acres from the March report, while most saw an increase in acres. The states with the largest increase in soybean acres are Illinois (600,000 acres), Iowa (500,000 acres), Kansas, and North Dakota (350,000 acres each). It appears that much of the increase in these states came at the expense of corn (Iowa and Kansas) or spring wheat (North Dakota) acres. Mississippi’s planted acres were revised up by 100,000 acres. Using the latest national yield estimate from the USDA, the increase in planted soybean acres would increase U.S. soybean production by just over 151 million bushels or about 4% higher than the current production estimate. So far, this has had a major impact on markets, with September futures losing 72 cents on the day, most of which came after the report’s release. U.S. soybean stocks are 7% lower than a year ago with 405 million bushels in storage as of June 1, 2014. As with corn, the soybean stock estimate falls toward the high end of the pre-report range of estimates. The U.S. soybean crop is currently rated at 73% good or excellent, while Mississippi’s soybean crop has 68% rated good or excellent.

Wheat acres were also slightly higher than expected with an estimated 56.474 million planted acres, about 660,000 acres more than March’s estimate but still falling within the range of pre-report estimates. The states with the biggest increases are South Dakota (300,000) and Montana (250,000) while North Dakota’s planted acres were decreased by 230,000 acres. Mississippi’s wheat acres were unchanged. Wheat stocks are down 18% from a year ago with just under 590 million bushels in storage. Mississippi’s wheat harvest is 92% complete while 43% of the U.S. wheat crop has been harvested.

For more detail on crop futures and Mississippi local cash prices click here. Detailed information on crop progress can be found here.