USDA Forum Begins to Shape 2014 Crop Outlook

After a couple weeks of slow news for the crop markets, the outlook for the 2014 crop is beginning to take shape. The USDA released the weekly export sales report this morning, with corn exports falling around 691,400 metric tons. That is down 50% from the 4-week average. The USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum has been taking place the last two days and has given us some early projections for this year’s crops. National corn yields are projected to increase to 165.3 bu/acre and although planted acres will likely be lower, total production is expected to break last year’s record. Corn futures are down slightly on the day, but are still up about nine cents on the week. Current USDA price projections for corn are around $3.90 for the 2014/15 season. A record soybean yield of 45.2 bushels per acre is expected to result in a major boost in ending stocks at 285 million bushels compared to 150 million bushels for the 2013/14 crop year. The season average soybean price is projected by the USDA to be around $9.65/bu. Soybeans are up on the day despite weekly exports of 86,300 metric tons, the lowest weekly total of the year.